(The actual death count by July 2020 was 5,700.) Those same modelers predicted that Sweden would suffer 96,000 deaths by July 2020 if the nation didn’t close. It’s important to remember that one of the reasons nations went into lockdown in the first place was that the Imperial College of London predicted as many as 40 million people would die in nine months if the virus was left unchecked. What experts back in April predicted would happen to Sweden's ICUs if they didn't #lockdown compared to what actually happened in #Sweden. Whatever data one chooses, one fact is undebatable: this is not what modelers predicted. World Health Organization data he references show Swedes had an excess death rate average of 56/100,000-far better than Italy (133), Germany (116), Spain (111), and the UK (109). While Wallace-Wells is skeptical of Swedish claims that the country had the lowest excess mortality in Europe-he says the data set is imperfect and is not adjusted for demographics-it’s clear Sweden performed better than many lockdown nations. Just how successful Sweden’s approach was is still subject to debate. And though Wallace-Wells seems to begrudge Anders Tegnell-the architect of Sweden’s policy-taking a “victory lap through the media,” it’s worth pointing out that the epidemiologist received death threats for his pandemic response, which looks better with each passing week. The Grey Lady reported in 2020 that “Sweden Has Become the World's Cautionary Tale” for its Covid response, and the Times was joined by a chorus of media outlets (and President Donald Trump) who alleged Sweden had “botched the pandemic” and amplified the virus. Lowest excess deaths in Europe over 2020 to 2022 goes to … Sweden, the one country that did not panic and toss out all wisdom. This might not sound like much of a concession, but it is.
But he does concede that “it’s hard to argue on the basis of Sweden’s epidemiological experience that its policy course was a disastrous one.”
Times writer David Wallace-Wells doesn’t accept claims that Sweden-which drew intense criticism for refusing to go into lockdown in 2020-had the lowest excess death rate in Europe, with just 3.3 percent more deaths than expected, the lowest percentage among OECD countries. “How Did No-Mandate Sweden End Up With Such an Average Pandemic?” the headline asked. A couple of weeks ago, The New York Times published an article that would have been unthinkable a few years ago.
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